Smoke test calculator

Estimate the ad budget you need to validate demand before building.

Phase 2
Campaign inputs
Warm traffic (existing audience, referral) typically converts 3–5× better than cold paid traffic. Start conservative.
Visitors needed
2,000
Landing page sessions required
Total ad budget
$3,000
Estimated total spend
Benchmark guide
Cold paid traffic CVR 1–3%
Warm audience CVR 10–25%
B2B Google Ads CPC $2–8
Min. signups for valid signal 100+
If your budget exceeds what you can spend, increase your conversion rate first (stronger headline, clearer offer) before increasing spend.
Survey responses
Total responses
40
Aim for 40+ before trusting the result
Ellis PMF score
37.5%
Almost there
0%Target: 40%100%
Interpretation

Close to the mark. Isolate your "very disappointed" users, find which features they rely on most, and sharpen your positioning exclusively around them.

The Ellis test measures dependency, not satisfaction. A dependent user can't leave; a merely satisfied user can. That's the difference between must-have and nice-to-have.
These questions follow Rob Fitzpatrick's Mom Test: ask about past behaviour, not future intention. If they say "I would love that" — that's not validation. "I paid £200/month for something similar last year" — that is.
Paste competitor reviews
Legend
gapSomething broken — a weakness to exploit
opportunityAn underserved need you can own
watchA risk area — monitor carefully
Gap analysis

Paste reviews and click "Analyse reviews" to surface recurring pain themes and market gaps.

Overall progress 0 / 15 tasks
Task Phase Status